An Error in Their Enrollment Estimates?

I spent time looking at the enrollment estimates - crazy I know since we were forced to look at them for hours yesterday. Anyway, I found that what has driven the reduced enrollments over the past 5 years occurs in the Middle and High Schools not the Elementary Schools. In fact, in the elementary schools, over the past five years, enrollment has remained steady or increased as often as it decreased. Therefore to apply a district wide loss to all schools is erroneous (wrong). I, instead calculated the five year average for the elementary schools. In statistics, this is what we do when data fluctuates to get a more accurate picture. I found that rather than the 753 predicted to next year's elementary schools, we should be prepared for 800 kids. While we may not see 800 next year, data suggests that this is the average we should expect. I should add that if I used a 6 year average this number would be a bit higher.

Year	KES	MES	RES	MS	HS	District Total
2005-06	327	293	260	880	959	2719
2006-07	313	276	254	817	983	2643
2007-08	294	283	249	738	1002	2566
2008-09	293	257	226	683	926	2385
2009-10	284	257	231	675	853	2300
2010-11	294	271	217	645	802	2229
5-year average	296	269	235	712	913	2425
(2006-2011)
Elementary Pop  5yr Average	800

If you smooth the data, It seems that since 2008, our elementary enrollment has already plateaued. So it seems just as probable (if not more) that the future sees a larger elementary school enrollment than a smaller one.