A Look at Class Size

Rosario provided an analysis of class size. There were three problems I noted. My focus is on Kerhonsen since if any school closes, it seems unlikely to be KES so the easiest picture is there.

1. For a special education estimate for kindergarten he wrote "to be determined". Why not use the rate of the other grades and put in a guess so that we can have a clearer idea?
2. For the number of available classrooms, Rosario listed 20. On his list provided last week, he reported that there were 21 classes. However, it was pointed out that he was counting a behavioral management classroom and an OT/PT room in the list. This would mean that if we do not cut services to special needs the classroom count is really 19.
3. The projection provided is again, shortsighted. What happens in 2012? 

Below I first present his numbers (Table 1). Then I present Table 2 which adjusts Rosario's by estimating 6 kids in kindergarten special ed (based on other years). Then I present Table 3 which simply moves each kid in the 2011 projection to the next grade in 2012 and estimates no growth in the kindergarten.

If we use Rosario's estimates, and we add 7 special education kids to KES and 8 to the RES/MES model (simply using the average from the other grades) then that suggests that we could have 791 kids in our elementary school next year. In 2008 we had 776, in 2009 we had 772, in 2010 we have 782. A prediction for 791 for 2011 means for the past 4 years WE DO NOT HAVE DECLINING ENROLLMENT IN THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS. We may be seeing quite the opposite in the next few years if this stupid idea does not mean that we lose too many kids to High Meadow. If you do not like the class sizes projected here imagine, it could get worse.

Table 1: What Rosario Presented:

Kindergarten - 4th Grade Elementary School(s) - two schools
School #1 (KES)
Grade Level	Number of Classes	Student Enrollment		Class Size Average
		General Education	Special Education
Kindergarten	4	74	tbd	18.5
1st Grade	3	63	6	23.0
2nd Grade	4	71	8	19.8
3rd Grade	5	93	5	19.6
4th Grade	4	72	6	19.5
Special Education	2

 total classes need = 20

Total =398

Table 2: Adding 6 Kids to Special Education in Kindergarten and Taking one Class Out for 19 Non-Special Needs Classrooms.

Kindergarten - 4th Grade Elementary School(s) - two schools
School #1 (KES)
Grade Level	Number of Classes	Student Enrollment		Class Size Average
		General Education	Special Education
Kindergarten	4	74	6	20.0
1st Grade	3	63	6	23.0
2nd Grade	4	71	8	19.8
3rd Grade	5	93	5	19.6
4th Grade	3	72	6	26.0
Special Education	2
Total = 403

Table 3: Projections for 2012 Moving All Students Up with No Increase in K Enrollment

Kindergarten - 4th Grade Elementary School(s) - two schools
School #1 - South (KES) - 2012
Grade Level	Number of Classes	Student Enrollment		Class Size Average
		General Education	Special Education
Kindergarten	4	74	7	20.3
1st Grade	4	74	7	20.3
2nd Grade	3	63	6	23.0
3rd Grade	4	71	8	19.8
4th Grade	4	93	5	24.5
Special Education	2
Total school enrollment = 408 - if no growth

Keep in mind these are average class size. Will inclusion be a bit smaller making the non-inclusion even larger? are these number o.k.? Every piece of research I read says student perform better academically in the short and long term with smaller class size. How will these sizes impact our KES kids? Also keep in mind that this means over 100 more kids in KES (if we have no more growth). What are the implications of that?